Oscars Predictions: Once More... With Feeling!

Various

Last year, film reviewer extraordinaire Forest Taylor correctly predicted 10 out of 13 categories. This year he predicts wins for (left to right, top to bottom) Hamnet, Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Sinners, KPop Demon Hunters, Train Dreams, and Avatar: Fire and Ash. See how he fares this year as you tune into watch Sunday, March 15 at 7 p.m. on ABC.

In times like these, television awards shows may feel like a self-indulgent distraction – and they are, but sometimes we need some light-hearted entertainment. This year's Oscars have offered some genuine surprises. We have a new category and Sinners has broken a record held for 75 years! Once again, the Academy's choices left me disappointed (excellent films like Sorry, Baby and The Testament of Ann Lee were totally ignored) and pleasantly surprised (the truly awful Wicked: For Good was completely shut out). But now let's check out the nominees.

Best Picture

The nominees this year are mostly solid contenders. There were some that didn't grab my interest, but at least there is no trash on the level of Emelia Perez this year. The obvious frontrunner for the big prize is One Battle After Another (OBAA). Paul Thomas Anderson's epic has been a big hit with critics and audiences alike since its release and it makes perfect sense for the Academy to honor it with its top prize. However, there is a very strong challenger: Ryan Coogler's Sinners is now the most Oscar-nominated film with 16 nominations (the previous record, 14, was held by All About Eve back in 1951). The horror/drama is one of the highest-grossing films of the year and has near-unanimous critical praise. Those are the makings of a true Oscar powerhouse, but the Academy is notoriously hard on horror films. Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Hamnet are the next biggest challengers, but it really comes down to OBAA and Sinners. In the end, I think it will go to One Battle After Another.

Best Director

Best Picture and Best Director usually go hand-in-hand, so that makes Paul Thomas Anderson the clear frontrunner. However, Ryan Coogler's direction for Sinners is the best in his career so far. He could easily take the prize. That said, the Academy loves giving veteran directors their long-awaited dues and Anderson hasn't won one yet. That easily puts him ahead of the other nominees. I don't see anyone but Paul Thomas Anderson winning this award.

Best Actor

For months, I was certain that this would be an easy win for Leonardo DiCaprio in OBAA, but in the last month, he has been completely overshadowed by Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme, and at this time, maybe even by Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent. Leo went from a sure thing to an underdog. Didn't see that coming. Anyway, I think Chalamet has this one.

Best Actress

This is the easiest of the major categories to predict because Jessie Buckley has had it in the bag for months. I would like more competition because some of the best performances of the year are here (except Kate Hudson. She was fine, but I'd have rather seen Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee). My personal favorite is Rose Byrne's brutal performance in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, but Buckley's heart-rending role in Hamnet is great as well. This award is basically Buckley's already.

Best Supporting Actor

Once again, I thought Sean Penn had this one easy for his terrifying/ridiculous performance as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw (great name), but lately he's been getting overshadowed by his OBAA co-star Benicio del Toro. That leaves an opening that will be filled by Stellan Skarsgård. The Academy loves using the Supporting awards for overdue acting veterans and Skarsgård gave one of his best performances in Sentimental Value. I think those factors will lead to his win.

Best Supporting Actress

My heart tells me that this will go to Teyana Taylor's performance as Perfidia Beverly Hills (another great name), but there's something bugging me in the form of Amy Madigan's villainous performance in Weapons. She has already won some accolades and at this point, she may be the frontrunner. Still, I don't see OBAA winning the big one and not getting any acting awards. At this point, Taylor has the best shot at winning, but I'm not sure. This is the hardest one to predict and it may go either way.

Best Screenplay

The Best Original Screenplay category has some strong contenders (although I wish Eva Victor's incredible Sorry, Baby could have got in), but Ryan Coogler's screenplay for Sinners stands above them all. I originally thought it would go to Sentimental Value, but I think Coogler has the momentum that won't be stopped. Of course, I would like to see Jafar Panahi get it for It Was Just an Accident, but I know that's wishful thinking. Adapted Screenplay has some solid nominees too (except for Frankenstein. "You are the monster, Victor"? Wow, deep), but the clear standout is One Battle After Another. Hamnet has a slight chance, but not enough to compete.

Best Casting

For the first time since 2002, we have a brand new Oscar category! It's pretty exciting, but they might as well call it "The Sinners Award" at this point because nothing else stands a chance. Well, maybe One Battle After Another. In fact, this could be a barometer for what wins Best Picture. If Sinners doesn't win Best Casting, it may just get the big one.

Best International Feature

I was certain that Sentimental Value had an easy win with this one, but Brazil's The Secret Agent has been picking up momentum lately. It's turned things competitive, but I still think it will go to Sentimental Value. Of course, I would love to see it go to It Was Just an Accident. Panahi may be going back to prison if he returns to Iran, and I think giving him the award would make a powerful statement. I guess we'll see what happens.

Best Animated Feature

I don't see any scenario where KPop Demon Hunters doesn't win. The surprise Netflix hit has everything going for it. Of course, Zootopia 2 was the highest-grossing American film of 2025, but I don't think it matters. KPop will take it and everyone under the age of 12 will rejoice.

Best Cinematography

All strong contenders (except Frankenstein, which suffers from the glossy "daytime soap opera" sheen so common in Netflix films), but to me, the breathtaking cinematography of Train Dreams stands above the rest. My brain tells me this will go to Sinners, but my heart tells me Train Dreams takes it.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash. Sorry, other nominees. You made the mistake of being released the same year as an Avatar movie.

Forest's Predictions

Best Picture:
One Battle After Another

Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Best Actor:
Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme

Best Actress:
Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor:
Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress:
Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay:
Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Best Casting:
Sinners

Best International Feature:

Sentimental Value (Norway)

Best Animated Feature:
KPop Demon Hunters

Best Cinematography:
Train Dreams

Best Visual Effects:
Avatar: Fire and Ash