Does Phil Feel Lucky?

Chris Flook

Punxsutawney Phil emerges reluctantly but alertly in 2018 at Gobblers Knob, held up by one of the member of the Inner Circle.

"Okay campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties, because it's cold out there today." With those words, two morning DJs woke fictional weatherman Phil Conners in the classic 1993 comedy Groundhog Day. The big news on everybody's lips though – chapped lips – was: "Do you think Phil's gonna come out and see his shadow?"

February 2 is Groundhog Day, and that's the question at hand once again. 

One thing we wondered though, was just how often does Punxsutawney Phil – seer of seer, prognosticator of prognosticators, and the most famous groundhog in Pennsylvania – actually see his shadow. 

Phil has been doing this for a long time. Much longer than the average six-year lifespan of a groundhog (Marmota monax, aka woodchuck if you're not into latin). Yes, thanks to his special "Groundhog Punch" Phil has been making these predictions since 1886, with the formal event launching the year after. 

Legend has it that if he does see his shadow, we're in store for six more weeks of winter. This is a low estimate anyhow, as spring officially begins six weeks and four days after Feb. 2, but who's counting? 

via Columbia Pictures

It turns out that most of the time, he does see his shadow. If we look at the last century not only do we get some easy-to-determine percentages, but we see a few tendencies. 

Since 1921, Phil has seen his shadow 81% of the time. There were 18 years where he did not see his shadow, and one time in which Phil did not appear at all. 

It's really only in the last few decades that Phil has decided to mix it up. Since 1983, Phil has not seen his shadow 13 different times. 

In fact, the only time he has consecutively not seen his shadow was last year, over the course of 2019 and 2020 (there was some less-than-dependable record-keeping during the 1890s where no shadow was recorded). 

So, Phil could have possibly gone for an absolutely unprecedented hat trick of not seeing his shadow, but this year he did not. 

The prognostication from Groundhog.org on the morning of Feb. 2, 2022 read as such: 

Here ye, here ye, here ye,

Today, 2-2-22, welcome to Punxsutawney to celebrate Groundhog Day. the one hundred thirty sixth annual trek of the Punxsutawney groundhog club.

Punxsutawney phil, the seer of seers, the prognosticator of all prognosticators, was gently lifted from his burrow at  7:25 am, and held high to see. His faithful followers had returned with glee!

Placing phil on top of the stump, where in Groundhogese, he directed the president, Jeff Lundy, and the inner circle to his prediction scroll that reads:

Winter has been bleak and dark and bereft of hope. Yet winter is just another step in the cycle of life

As I look out over the faces of the true believers from around the world, I bask in the warmth of your hearts.

I couldn't imagine a better fate, with my shadow I have cast, than a long and lustrous six more weeks of winter.

Here is the history of Punxsutawney Phil's shadow-seeing according to the York Daily Record.

What is this, Miami Beach? Not hardly.

1921 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1922 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1923 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1924 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1925 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1926 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1927 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1928 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1929 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1930 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1931 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1932 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1933 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1934 No shadow Early spring

1935 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1936 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1937 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1938 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1939 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1940 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1941 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1942 No shadow Early spring

1943 Did not appear

1944 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1945 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1946 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1947 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1948 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1949 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1950 No shadow Early spring

1951 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1952 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1953 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1954 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1955 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1956 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1957 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1958 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1959 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1960 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1961 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1962 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1963 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1964 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1965 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1966 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1967 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1968 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1969 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1970 No shadow Early spring

1971 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1972 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1973 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1974 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1975 No shadow Early spring

1976 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1977 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1978 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1979 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1980 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1981 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1982 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1983 No shadow Early spring

1984 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1985 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1986 No shadow Early spring

1987 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1988 No shadow Early spring

1989 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1990 No shadow Early spring

1991 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1992 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1993 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1994 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1995 No shadow Early spring

1996 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1997 No shadow Early spring

1998 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

1999 No shadow Early spring

2000 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2001 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2002 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2003 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2004 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2005 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2006 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2007 No shadow Early spring

2008 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2009 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2010 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2011 No shadow Early spring

2012 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2013 No shadow Early spring

2014 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2015 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2016 No shadow Early spring

2017 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2018 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2019 No shadow Early spring

2020 No shadow Early spring

2021 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter 

2022 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2023 Saw shadow Six more weeks of winter

2024 No shadow Early Spring

This article has been updated with the 2022 - 2024 outcomes