Making a Small City Smaller: The Storm
What a summer of severe weather tells us about Erie's future under the worsening effects of climate change
One thing I remember hearing from people when I moved here was how Erie could one day serve as a region that could attract climate refugees. A climate refugee is someone who moves from an area that has been heavily impacted by climate change into an area that is more protected from climate change-related weather events. Think someone moving from drought-plagued California to the Midwest for cheaper and better access to water. Erie, even in 2019, was discussed as an area that usually avoids major storms, tornados, and heat emergencies, because of its location on the lake with temperate winds blowing in from Canada. The winters, if anything, could get milder and this region would be relatively calm compared to Tornado Alley, the East Coast, and the states around the Gulf of Mexico.
The summer of 2026 proved that this region, while mostly protected from things like hurricanes, is definitely not impervious to the negative effects of climate change. From the worst wildfire smoke we've ever seen to multiple instances of severe weather to an extreme heat wave, Erie experienced some of its most devastating adverse weather in decades. So what did we learn from this year of weather, The Storm, and how we can best prepare our community for dealing with certain similar events in the near future?
First, we have to address The Storm, a supercell thunderstorm that landed on shore Sept. 2 around 11:30 p.m. and ravaged the West Bayfront, Frontier, and Little Italy neighborhoods in a matter of minutes, leaving more than 800 to 1,000 trees uprooted, thousands without power for multiple days, cars crushed, power lines downed, roads blocked and flooded, 15 parks and rec areas closed, and millions upon millions of dollars in property damage in its wake. The storm moved from northwest to southeast with a cloud column 60,000 feet high. The atmosphere's convective available potential energy (CAPE) throughout the day was around 2.5 times higher than the conditions that lead to average thunderstorms.
It began with lightning and soaking rain before a pressure change caused a microburst of hail and straight line winds of up to 80 mph across the entire West Bayfront neighborhood that caused widespread havoc as far as 5 miles inland. Particularly notable is the destruction to the Erie Cemetery, which includes several buildings and grave sites, and Frontier Park. The storm is, without a doubt, the most devastating storm in the last century for the City of Erie. The soaking rain beforehand loosened the soil enough so that the very heavy, old, and unstable trees filled with a full leaf canopy were even easier to blow down. It really was a perfect storm, in the most literal use of that idiom, and unfortunately hit the neighborhoods with the oldest tree canopies like a bullseye.
Was this storm made possible by climate change? Yes, full stop. A 2013 study published by the National Academy of Sciences showed that global climate models indicated huge increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. It actually mentions an elevated risk for this very type of storm right in the abstract: "We also find that days with high CAPE and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events…" So 13 years later, we can confidently say these predictions are coming true.
Not only is this storm a direct result of increased greenhouse gases causing an overall increase in global temperature, but it leaves us more susceptible to the future effects of climate change because of the lost tree canopy. A dwindling tree canopy significantly accelerates climate change and the negative effects of severe weather. Living trees absorb carbon dioxide from the air and losing them leaves more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to trap heat. There's also significant wildlife habitat loss, less cooling of the asphalt leading to hotter days, and an increased risk of flooding since roots are not in the ground to absorb soaking rain. Trees also hold soil in place and without them, fertile soil washes away much more easily. Losing a tree or two in a storm is one thing, but leaving hundreds of trees, by city estimates as many as 1,000, uprooted overnight over a 5- to 10-mile radius is a clear warning sign.
We've passed the point of no return. Most climate scientists today will say we are well beyond the point at which any intervention we take would significantly alter the course of climate change, global warming, and the severe consequences to come. With absolutely no end in sight to the ignorance and corporate greed driving industrial deregulation and now the push to create city-sized, water-guzzling data centers, it's hard to be optimistic about the future of Erie and everywhere else on Earth with the looming effects of climate change slowly revealing themselves over the next decade or so.
Erie is strong, though. I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone who helped in the wake of the cleanup effort. City crews from police, fire, public works, parks, streets, refuse, Department of Neighborhood and Economic Development, and the Mayor's office worked their tails off to clean up damage and communicate their efforts effectively to the public. Penelec sent extra crews to our region to restore power eventually. The City of Erie received assistance by declaring a State of Emergency and we had folks from Team Rubicon in town assisting residents with private property damage. A Multi-Agency Resource Center was held at the Salvation Army to provide assistance to residents with damaged property. The community came together in a major way to help each other, and thankfully no one was seriously injured or killed.
The only way we can hope to curb the impacts of events like this is to support and vote for candidates who take climate change seriously – who have actionable plans to safeguard our region from environmental deregulation, eschew corporate interests, oppose the building of data centers, and vote for state and federal assistance for climate-positive work. Things like assistance for the replanting of our tree canopy, increased support for adaptive vacant land reuse, urban farming and local food security initiatives, environmental justice work, investment in mass transit, and subsidies for renewable energy alternatives are all totally achievable policy objectives. Without significant action on all fronts and a major change at the ballot box, we Erieites may find ourselves to be climate refugees one day in the near future.
Dave Tamulonis is an educator and musician living in Erie. He is the director of grants at the City of Erie and lives in the West Bayfront with his wife Marissa, dog Esthera Minerva, and cat Cherry Blossom.
